The House of Commons resumed this week after our three week conference recess, with a sense of “let’s just get on with it.” There has been a lot of press talk over the summer about leadership challenges and early elections, most of it pure speculation. Unless my radar system is faulty I predict that: (i) Mrs May will lead us through Brexit due to take place in March 2019 (ii) the Brexit negotiations will end in a sensible deal (probably at the last minute) and (iii) the next election is unlikely to be before 2021 and probably June 2022.
I went to Kosovo about 15 years ago with the late and great Bill Deedes a vastly respected Telegraph journalist. He was meticulous in ensuring that his extensive notes (he was scribbling non-stop during meetings) were accurate and that he only reported something he knew to be true. He would often quote the well-known dictum of a former editor of the Guardian: comment is free, but facts are sacred. How far we have fallen since these words were uttered in 1921.
Most of us have learned to ignore the media froth and try to discern the underlying reality. Here it is: Mrs May has been weakened by the outcome of the General Election, but she remains a commanding figure and there is nobody in the team who could do a better job, so the vast majority of us at Westminster want her to continue to lead us through Brexit and get the job done. In the summer of 2019 we can re-assess the situation. If she has sufficiently recovered her authority by then she could carry on. We should not allow a handful of dissidents to dominate the headlines.
On Brexit, the negotiations were always going to go down to the wire. So expect 12 months more of press speculation and foam. I remain optimistic that we will get a deal that works for my constituents.
On the next election, the DUP are steady under fire and I see no reason why we cannot govern for the full 5-year Parliament.
It would be great if the next 12 months were very boring at Westminster, while we slog through the legislation in preparation for Brexit (part of which I have the honour of chairing) and just get on with calmly leading our country through difficult international waters.
We have had enough excitement recently to last a political lifetime.