Gary's views

FUEL

This time it was a few hundred lorry drivers; next time it could be the Russians! The sight of empty service stations in our area is a reminder that we all depend so heavily on fuel and that we are at the mercy of those who produce and supply it.

North Sea oil will be largely gone within 10 years or so whereupon we will import virtually all of our oil and gas. Unfortunately the places around the world that still have plenty of supply are not exactly stable places: the Middle East, Russia and Nigeria to name but a few.

We know how volatile the Middle East can be. If, for example, Iran acquires nuclear capability, or Israel and/or the USA launches a first strike to prevent them from so doing, the entire region could easily collapse into turmoil, affecting oil production. Russia is enjoying a renewed influence thanks to extensive oil and gas resources, but is not above exercising its muscle by denying supply to western countries to make a political point. Nigeria, well, where do we start?

Energy security has now become a huge long term issue for the future of this country. That’s why we need to move much more quickly to build a new generation of nuclear power stations and increase the practical deployment of renewables into the national grid. But that won’t help us stay mobile unless we move to electric cars. So one crucial duty of any government over the next few decades is to guarantee oil and gas supplies.

But that doesn’t let the rest of us off the hook. The interruptions this week should serve as a reminder that the good times, the times of plenty, are coming to an end.

We have to gradually change our ways and become less reliant on our cars. Easy to say, hard to do. We must certainly all review the fuel efficiency of the vehicle we drive and tax policy should encourage us to do so, although, this should not be retrospective. Green taxes must give people the chance to change their behaviour before they get clobbered with extra taxes, otherwise the least well-off (who have less capacity to change) will be penalised once more.

How much oil is left beneath the surface of the planet? Nobody really knows, but it could well run out altogether within my lifetime. What will we do then? I hope somebody has got a plan!

Nigel Double
Special Adviser

Tel: 020 7219 5033

Mobile: 07718 349853

Room 484

Portcullis House

House of Commons

London

SW1A 2LW