Gary's views

WILL THERE BE A NEW TOWN?

The developers are still maintaining that they will stick to their original timetable and get the bulldozers onto the site of the proposed new town at Sherford in 2009.

The state of the housing market, the credit crunch and the financial structure of the deal all militate against that from happening. There was last week an announcement that the proposed new town in East Devon will now be mothballed for a few years. I will eat my hat if that does not happen to Sherford as well.

All of the calculations by the developers will have been made on the basis of sale prices for their houses of £x. The price is no longer £x, but £x less £10,000 or £20,000 or maybe even more and the drop in house prices locally has still not bottomed out. Who knows when they will stabilise and start to climb again, maybe not for 2 years?

Our wonderful banks, because of the problems they have pulled down upon themselves by irresponsible lending, are now very wary of lending to anybody or anything that is not gold-plated, copper-bottomed and wrapped up in belt and braces. So why would they want to take a chance with Sherford when they do not know if they will ever sell a single house there?

The developer has to put the expensive infrastructure in first – the roads and services AND build a school and other public amenities AND stump up millions to local councils in what used to be called planning gain money all before they can build a single house to sell.

The developers indicate that they are taking are taking a 25 year view and houses prices will recover well within that period, which is obviously true. But that does not get them over the massive up front borrowing hurdle – why should any bank take that risk?

This does not mean that we can relax. The developers would be mad not to complete putting the detailed planning permissions in place so that they can build when the markets recover. We must ensure that South Hams and Plymouth Councils do not make concessions in quality, affordability or specification just to get the job done. Much better to have the right planning frameworks in place and delay the project for 5 to 10 years than to lower our standards and get some tacky development that we will all live to regret.

RECESSION?

Are we going to have a recession or not? The experts are undecided but funnily enough, it is ordinary punters, like you and me, who may have a clearer picture. Just ask yourself, what do you think about current economic conditions and are you planning on making any cutbacks to your spending plans? If you and the people you know answer in the affirmative to that straightforward question it is likely that we will fall into recession.

Our economy is simply the sum of all of our spending decisions. Most of us have been battered in recent months with spiralling pump prices, increasing supermarket costs and massive hikes in fuel bills. Some have seen our fixed rate or discounted mortgages come to an end with alarming uplifts. The money has got to come from somewhere and so most of us are looking for ways to reduce spending in other areas, pulling in our horns somehow. Most people I know are doing this, which means that our economy will feel the impact of these decisions.

Add to this gloomy backdrop the specific woes of the housing market and the cocktail gets bleaker. Housing plays a massive part in our economy – far more than our European partners – because so many of us own our own houses in the UK and have become used to mortgaging our equity to fund other purchases. Once house values begin to fall and (as now) mortgage products are less attractive, then much housing related spending starts to shrivel and die, so the economy contacts further.

Recession is where the economy goes backwards (negative growth) for two quarters in a row. The last quarter’s figures showed that we were at a standstill. Many people have tightened the belts further since then. It would take a brave person to bet against a recession, but let us hope it is shallow and short-lived.

Every cloud has a silver lining. The fall in housing prices – probably still not bottomed out – will make homes more affordable for first time buyers and help solve a massive problem in these parts for our young people.

A clever person told me a few years ago that we will never had another recession because we now know how to avoid them through skilful fiscal management. Such foolishness! Throughout history the economy has grown and contracted, experienced peaks and troughs and always will. In the end it is our spending decisions that are crucial.

SCHOOL AGAIN

Next week hundreds of local children will go back to school with the relieved cries of joy of just as many parents ringing in their ears, signalling the end of summer. The roads will get busier again, the bus stops will be full of un-tucked shirts and very short ties and it won’t be long before our shops are full of stuff for Christmas!

For one group of pupils and parents, it is a nervous time – the very first day at “big school” My oldest grandchild is in that boat, having tried out his smart new green school jumper over the summer, with his mum (and Jan and I) saying all of the right things to encourage him that this is going to be the best thing since sliced bread. He is going to the same infant school that our own children went to, making me feel very old. I don’t want to see him on his first morning, because I will be too emotional. It is definitely a job for the tougher half of the species (women) to take them to school on their first day.

It is a good time to remind ourselves just how much we owe our school teachers. We hand over our fragile young ones into their care for hours every day and trust them to hand them back in one piece, educated, enhanced and ready for a life of success. I do not have the skills to be a teacher and I wish to place on record a hearty thanks from all of us for all that they do.

In our house we have been watching the BBC choir competition and were particularly struck at the quality of some of the young people, especially those from north Wales with the unpronounceable name. We hear so many negatives about today’s youth, and of course there are some who let themselves down with their behaviour. There are many parents who simply don’t bother. But we must continually remind ourselves that this is just a minority and is not an indication of the country going to the dogs. But I am constantly meeting very impressive and responsible youngsters who will make us proud and take this country forward.

So after a dreadful summer of rain, with the nights already drawing in, with the economy turning down, there are plenty of reasons for gloom. The state of the next generation is not one of them.

PLYMPTON LIBRARY

It was one of the flimsiest buildings in the city, but the burning down of Plympton Library last week was a real blow to this area. This ramshackle hut was one of the best used libraries in the city, serving hundreds of local families each week with books and information of all kinds. The dedication of the staff was outstanding and my own children spent many happy hours in there a decade or two ago. The dreadful building will not be missed, but the contents were priceless, especially the historic documents of Plympton’s past so diligently put together by Phil Armson and John Boulden.

It is now important that the council wastes no time in providing a new facility. It was heartening to hear the leader of the council confirm that it will be replaced and as quickly as possible. I see no reason why the new library cannot also be in the Harewood House site, which is the most central location.

The good people of Plymstock are having a new library shortly and Ivybridge is now well served by a state of the art facility in the Watermark building which is proving popular. Even in this computer age libraries provide a vital community facility, helping many thousands of people to broaden their knowledge base, simply read for pleasure or carry out research. They are a cultural hub of the local community and it is vital that we preserve them.  It is particularly important that children and young people have free access to reading material for development and fun, and not just Internet games

It will obviously take some time to create a new facility. I understand that like most local authorities, Plymouth does not insure its buildings because with so much real estate in its ownership the annual cost of the premiums would be prohibitive. So it will take time to find the necessary resources and come up with an eye-catching design that this historic town deserves.

In the meantime, I very much hope that temporary facilities can be found to provide some continuity in the provision of local library services. There are two places that might be suitable, namely the old Job Centre building in Ridgeway or Corals the betting shop in St. Stephen’s Place both of which are empty. Both seem big enough for a makeshift library while the new one is designed and constructed.

I hope our listening council will take note!