The session of parliament before Christmas was as intense as any I can remember since the 1990’s. I suspect that the next 12 months will present more of the same.
Yet, in all the storm and the media hype, the Good Ship United Kingdom remains broadly on track. The people voted for Brexit and the government is delivering Brexit, now looking like a sensible one with minimal cliff edge. The economy continues to grow. More people are in work than ever before, although I accept that life remains tough for some. Standards in most of our schools are rising due to heroic efforts by the teaching profession. Our hospitals are treating more people than ever before, and for most people their encounter with the NHS is a positive one.
So we plough on, determined to reach the destination the electorate has set. We will leave the EU in March 2019; there will be a transition period of roughly two years in which not much will change. We will be completely independent by early 2021 as we continue to shape a country fit for everyone.
When you look back on the past 12 months many things have happened that could not have been anticipated. It is always foolish to look ahead, but let me make a few political predictions:
There will be no general election in 2018 and Mrs May will continue as our Prime Minister until at least 2021. Ironically, this Parliament with no overall majority, looks like going the full distance, largely because of the Brexit staging-posts set out above.
By the end of the year the two main parties will still be broadly neck and neck in the opinion polls. We are back to two party politics and there is likely to be little churn between the two sides. Most of our supporters are petrified by the prospect of a Corbyn government. Most Labour supporters believe Tories exist to grind the faces of the poor into the dirt and could never contemplate supporting us. Two parties. Poles apart. Political stalemate.
Mrs May will continue to recover lost confidence and authority and as she does so her support in the country will grow. I hope to see her bring on some of the talented youngsters in our ranks so that when we do come to select a new leader, we will be able to present an exciting new champion for the people to support.
Happy New Year