There are 316 Conservative MPs following the general election, which is why we do not have an overall majority as the magic figure is 326.
Out of 316 my guess is that there are about 35 who you might describe as passionate Brexiteers: people who get up in the morning thinking about little else but leaving the EU. They actually want us to leave the EU with no trade deal and are quite happy jumping over a cliff edge – even though many of our businesses do not support such a huge risk. They are zealous and focussed and make a lot of noise, but they reflect only a tad over ten percent of the Parliamentary Party.
On the other side of the argument, possibly about 20 Tory MPs have not really come to terms with the decision to leave the EU and if there was a chance to de-rail it, they probably would. They tend to be nicer people and not quite as vociferous.
This leaves over 250 of us – the vast majority – who, irrespective of how we voted in June 2016, fully accept the outcome of the Referendum and leave the EU we must. We support a Brexit in the national interest and are perfectly content with the clear framework for this that the Prime Minister has set out in two major speeches in 2017 and in the deal that was struck just before Christmas.
It is likely that that the Parliamentary arithmetic will prevail. The hard-line Brexiteers will huff and puff but do not have the numbers. If they blow the house down by triggering a leadership election (even if they could muster the requisite 15% or 48 names) they know they might end up with a leader who delivers a watered down Brexit, or- even worse - events unfold which place Mr Corbyn in 10 Downing St. In which case the zealots would not deliver the kind of clear Brexit they want, and very possibly no Brexit at all.
I therefore remain hopeful that the numbers will take us to a sensible Brexit on 29th March 2019, with a perfectly reasonable transition period of two years or less. But along the journey to that outcome we will have this constant drip feed of moaning, gesturing and bullying, all of it gratefully snapped up by the media.
My advice remains: take little notice. Switch on again after March 2019 when hopefully normal service will be resumed